Tashkent time is - 
05 January 2010
08:40 -
Central Asia Defence And Security Report Q1 201
New report provides detailed analysis of the Defence market
Published on January 04, 2010
by Press Office
(Companiesandmarkets.com and OfficialWire)
LONDON, ENGLAND
As part of the Soviet Union, Central Asia was primarily valuable for its natural resources and not for its manufacturing or industrial base. As a result, the economies of the region were left with few industrialised assets when they found independence thrust upon them in the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Although some manufacturing facilities were inherited from the Soviet regime in Kazakhstan, the region has no substantial defence sector. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan continue to be involved in the production of arms, though Kazakh production is mainly for Russian defence firms producing material for the Russian forces. Uzbekistan has seen moderate success in establishing a niche industry focused on aerospace. Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have no known defence production or research capacity and rely on arms, spares and upgrades from Russia.
As a result of the Kazakh government's recent protectionist trade policies, in addition to murmurs among the political elite that the incumbent president may become a lifetime leader, we caution that democratic and market reforms may lose considerable momentum. Indeed, although we believe that Kazakhstan wants to bolster trade relationships with the West and raise its international political profile, further attempts at democratisation are likely to remain piecemeal and potentially illusory in some instances. Despite opposition protests disputing the legitimacy of the July 23 2009 Kyrgyz presidential election result, we maintain that incumbent Kurmanbek Bakiyev will remain secure in his position over the long term. With both Russia and the US maintaining strategic interests in the country, we expect foreign criticism over the conduct of the poll to remain limited. This will ensure that the opposition movement will stay muted, especially as the government is likely to continue shutting down public outlets for political discontent.
Coinciding with the escalation of NATO missions in neighbouring Afghanistan, anti-terrorist operations in Tajikistan are likely to continue through the medium term. Security risks owing to Islamist insurgents will remain pronounced, and this will continue to weigh on Tajikistan's political risk profile. Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has tentatively affirmed his support for the EU's Nabucco pipeline, once again providing renewed momentum for the still dormant energy project. However, we continue to warn of several risks to Turkmenistan's involvement with Nabucco, including the potential lack of capacity to satisfy supply contracts because of the disputed ownership rights with Azerbaijan over gas fields in the Caspian, and potential for further conflict between Russia and Georgia. We expect Uzbekistan to continue with its independent foreign policy over the long term, balancing the interests of Russia, the US and China to achieve its own geo-political aims. To be sure, a shift to close alignment with any of the major powers operating in the Central Asian region is unlikely. In the short term, we highlight ructions over energy policy with Tajikistan and Azerbaijan to continue to dominate the external affairs agenda. // OfficialWire (press release)
Published on January 04, 2010
by Press Office
(Companiesandmarkets.com and OfficialWire)
LONDON, ENGLAND
As part of the Soviet Union, Central Asia was primarily valuable for its natural resources and not for its manufacturing or industrial base. As a result, the economies of the region were left with few industrialised assets when they found independence thrust upon them in the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Although some manufacturing facilities were inherited from the Soviet regime in Kazakhstan, the region has no substantial defence sector. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan continue to be involved in the production of arms, though Kazakh production is mainly for Russian defence firms producing material for the Russian forces. Uzbekistan has seen moderate success in establishing a niche industry focused on aerospace. Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have no known defence production or research capacity and rely on arms, spares and upgrades from Russia.
As a result of the Kazakh government's recent protectionist trade policies, in addition to murmurs among the political elite that the incumbent president may become a lifetime leader, we caution that democratic and market reforms may lose considerable momentum. Indeed, although we believe that Kazakhstan wants to bolster trade relationships with the West and raise its international political profile, further attempts at democratisation are likely to remain piecemeal and potentially illusory in some instances. Despite opposition protests disputing the legitimacy of the July 23 2009 Kyrgyz presidential election result, we maintain that incumbent Kurmanbek Bakiyev will remain secure in his position over the long term. With both Russia and the US maintaining strategic interests in the country, we expect foreign criticism over the conduct of the poll to remain limited. This will ensure that the opposition movement will stay muted, especially as the government is likely to continue shutting down public outlets for political discontent.
Coinciding with the escalation of NATO missions in neighbouring Afghanistan, anti-terrorist operations in Tajikistan are likely to continue through the medium term. Security risks owing to Islamist insurgents will remain pronounced, and this will continue to weigh on Tajikistan's political risk profile. Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has tentatively affirmed his support for the EU's Nabucco pipeline, once again providing renewed momentum for the still dormant energy project. However, we continue to warn of several risks to Turkmenistan's involvement with Nabucco, including the potential lack of capacity to satisfy supply contracts because of the disputed ownership rights with Azerbaijan over gas fields in the Caspian, and potential for further conflict between Russia and Georgia. We expect Uzbekistan to continue with its independent foreign policy over the long term, balancing the interests of Russia, the US and China to achieve its own geo-political aims. To be sure, a shift to close alignment with any of the major powers operating in the Central Asian region is unlikely. In the short term, we highlight ructions over energy policy with Tajikistan and Azerbaijan to continue to dominate the external affairs agenda. // OfficialWire (press release)
